Kerry276 > Bush262 / minus Nader votes

Analysis Oct. 20, 11:00 a.m. ET: No change in the electoral vote count yet, but underlying currents are moving to Kerry. Latest polls suggest that a Florida shift to Kerry is more plausible than an Ohio shift to Bush, and a Kerry upset in West Virginia is more plausible than a Bush upset in New Jersey. The quantitative basis for ceding West Virginia to Bush is thin, and online and Democratic polls are making it thinner. We await the first neutral phone poll of October.

Note: Analysis in some states is based on surveys not yet posted in the tables.

Update 1:15 p.m. ET: New polls give Bush hope in New Hampshire but shore up New Mexico and Wisconsin for Kerry. The gradual isolation of Gallup in the latter two states makes us wonder whether to reexamine Gallup's numbers elsewhere.

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